[BartSimpson]

I've long maintained that the EU and the Euro are France and Germany together accomplishing politically that which neither of them could do militarily: Conquer Europe.

Let the chips fall where they may, if I were Greek I'd rather be starving and free than coddled and ruled by Brussels.

[Thanos]

I imagine that Greece holds at least one trump card in that they could threaten to leave NATO if the EU pushes too hard. Putin and Tsipras have already had one cuddle session in front of the cameras. Any economic problems inside Greece would be somewhat alleviated if Russian suddenly started supplying them with practically-free oil & gas, which is something someone like Putin would certainly do as just another way to take a shot at the EU and the US. NATO losing the northeast corner of the Mediterranean to an angry 'neutral' government that has a new best buddy in Moscow would cause all sorts of tantrums and fits to be thrown everywhere from Berlin to Brussels to Washington DC.

[andyt]

It's been pointed out that Putin could easily bail out, ie retire the debt of Greece, with no problem. He's not doing it because that would really push NATO's buttons. But a Greece pushed out of the EU, that might be easy pickings for him. Wonder what Turkey thinks of all this?

[martin14]

Thanos Thanos:

I imagine that Greece holds at least one trump card in that they could threaten to leave NATO if the EU pushes too hard. Putin and Tsipras have already had one cuddle session in front of the cameras. Any economic problems inside Greece would be somewhat alleviated if Russian suddenly started supplying them with practically-free oil & gas, which is something someone like Putin would certainly do as just another way to take a shot at the EU and the US. NATO losing the northeast corner of the Mediterranean to an angry 'neutral' government that has a new best buddy in Moscow would cause all sorts of tantrums and fits to be thrown everywhere from Berlin to Brussels to Washington DC.

Putin doesn't have money for that, in spite of what the troll says.

He would still have to get his ships through the Bosphorus, he still has a base in Syria,
and I think he will get docking rights in Cyprus soon.

The Greeks would be trying to sell him something he doesn't really need atm.

Next, I'm pretty sure this Greek government trying to take Greece out of NATO
would be an open invitation for the military to take over, so it won't happen.
The people won't support it either.

Lastly, I'm trying to think of the last time the Soviets/Russians did something ONLY for the purpose or ramping things up against the West,
and I can't come up with anything past Cuba in 1962....


Spare me the Ukraine/Crimea, that is very much a Russian issue.

[BartSimpson]

andyt andyt:

It's been pointed out that Putin could easily bail out, ie retire the debt of Greece, with no problem. He's not doing it because that would really push NATO's buttons. But a Greece pushed out of the EU, that might be easy pickings for him. Wonder what Turkey thinks of all this?

Russia's foreign currency reserves as of today are valued at US$362bn. They're currently operating a deficit of US$7bn per month and that's according to Russian government analysts. Bloomberg analysts estimate that defense spending on Ukraine operations is costing Russia an additional US$15bn per month.

Russia just can't do a bail out of Greece right now. They can posture and all, but that's it.

[martin14]

Well, here is a real shock.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/ ... 9220150629

UPDATE 1-Greece will not pay IMF loan due on Tuesday - govt official

$1:

(Reuters) - Greece will not pay a 1.6 billon euro loan installment due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, a Greek government official confirmed on Monday, highlighting the depth of the financial crisis facing the country.

Ministers have said repeatedly that Greece would not have the funds to pay the IMF unless it reached a deal with creditors to unlock 7.2 billion euros in bailout funds frozen while the two sides wrestled over the conditions demanded of Athens.

After talks broke down at the weekend, triggering the imposition of capital controls on Greek banks, it became a virtual formality that the IMF's June 30 deadline would not be met.

[Thanos]

It wouldn't stop Russia though from sending discount oil & gas to a suddenly friendly Greece that's angrily lashing back at the EU. The Vice special on HBO last night indicated how genuinely angry Russia is at the oil price collapse. I try not to get involved in conspiracy theory at all but there's probably a lot of legitimacy to the Russian belief that the Saudis triggered the oil price collapse on purpose, at the behest of the US, Canadian, and EU governments, as a way to get back at Russia over Ukraine. OPEC was making money hand over fist with a $100 barrel but all of a sudden in the middle of 2014 they decide on their own to massively over-produce and cut the price in half just to get back at American shale and Canadian oilsands production? None of this happened because any of the anti-Russia backroom shenanigans in the West, even though it was historically proven that the most economic damage ever done to the Soviet Union was in the 1980's when the US and the Arabs deliberately clobbered the price of oil in order to sabotage the value of the Soviet's sole profitable export commodity? Or that it's merely coincidental that American weapons sales to the Arabs goes up considerably during those times when the West's relationships with Russia are in a period of crisis? Bullshit to all of that. Russia's rediscovered sense of belligerence didn't come out of nowhere or without some kind of provocation.

Normally I'd say that this could all be solved by taking Putin out behind the chemical sheds and shooting him in the head. But the Russian anger over the oil collapse is real and it's legitimate. And apparently it's pissed them off to the point that they're more than willing to re-ignite the Cold War, with all the crises and problems that will result. Russia interfering with the Greeks as retaliation against the West is by no means impossible to see happening.

[QBall]

martin14 martin14:

Well, here is a real shock.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/ ... 9220150629

UPDATE 1-Greece will not pay IMF loan due on Tuesday - govt official

Another world's worst kept secret. It's like a bad Shyamalan twist.

[martin14]

QBall QBall:

Another world's worst kept secret. It's like a bad Shyamalan twist.

S&P cuts Greece
Posted at 19:43

More bad news for Greece: Standard & Poor's has cut its rating on the country's government debt from CCC to CCC- from CCC, saying the probability of Greece leaving the eurozone was now about 50%. S&P said Greece is likely to default on its commercial debt during the next six months.

[martin14]

Ratings agency Fitch has outlined its reason for downgrading Greece to 'junk' status, one level above full default.

"The breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors has significantly increased the risk that Greece will not be able to honour its debt obligations in the coming months, including bonds held by the private sector. We now view a default on government debt held by private creditors as probable,

[BartSimpson]

I won't say it's time to withdraw all of your cash from your bank. I also won't say it's time to withdraw a lot of cash from your bank.

But it would be prudent to have a few days extra cash on hand just in case there's a ripple effect from this slow motion collapse in Greece.

[Zipperfish]

I don't even remember what cash looks like.

[BartSimpson]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

I don't even remember what cash looks like.

010101001001001011100101010010100100101000101111001010101101010

[Proculation]

Go short on future drachma.

[martin14]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

I won't say it's time to withdraw all of your cash from your bank. I also won't say it's time to withdraw a lot of cash from your bank.

But it would be prudent to have a few days extra cash on hand just in case there's a ripple effect from this slow motion collapse in Greece.

Way ahead of you.

I survived a short crisis in Slovakia in 2007, and Cyprus in 2013. We are well spread out.

We'll see what the wife says when I get the shovel and some steel boxes out.

Proculation Proculation:

Go short on future drachma.

I was hoping to short the Euro this week, get it down to 1.08 - 1.06, it would be a good time
to buy; but the damn Swiss have been propping it up so far.